National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KBOU 080918
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
315 AM MDT MON SEP 8 2008

.SHORT TERM...STRONG SURFACE HIGH DRAPPED ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO
NEBRASKA WITH MODEST UPSLOPE UP TO AROUND 700MB ALONG FRONT
RANGE...PER 88D VAD WINDS. SURFACE OBS REPORTING A MIX OF DZ-/-RA
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WITH STILL SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN PROXIMITY TO STRONG 90KT JET TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. RUC QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELS STILL SHOWING MODEST ASCENT
ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE THRU MID MORNING HRS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
BE DIMINISHING AFT 15Z WHILE MSTR DEPTH BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY IN. DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG LOW LVL
INVERSION AROUND 700MB...WILL STILL SEE SOME STRATUS MUCH OF THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID 50S. WILL GO A BIT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
FAST TO WEAKEN THESE INVERSIONS. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG ON THE
PLAINS TNT AS MSTR BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AND STRONG SFC BASED
INVERSIONS DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS TIME
AROUND.  COLORADO WILL BE UNDER GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
STATE ON THURSDAY WILL THEN BE REPLACED BY MORE RIDGING ALOFT FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY ON THE
PLAINS WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.  MODEL MOISTURE
FIELDS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THAT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
ADVECTING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL
HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER THOSE AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ON
THURSDAY...AS A POSTIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL SPREAD OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS.  THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WEATHER DRIES BACK OUT AND TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  ALTHOUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AFTER TODAY...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DO
MUCH MORE THAN A GENERAL CHANCE OF RAINFALL FORECAST.  ALL IN ALL
SOME PRETTY NICE EARLY FALL WEATHER.  NOT TOO HOT OR NOT TOO COLD.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HAD ALL OF THESE FORECAST PARAMETERS
WELL HANDLED...SO NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES OTHER THAN SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENT DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF -DZ/-RA EXPECTED AT LOCAL
AIRPORTS WITH WET RUNWAYS UNTIL 15Z...THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING
DURING THE DAY...BUT STILL SOME MVFR UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST 10-15KT...THEN SHIFTING E-SE BY
AFTN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$
SENTREKI/KDRBY

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion