National Weather Service Forecast Discussion
| 5 Day Forecast |
000 FXUS65 KBOU 080852 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 251 AM MDT WED SEP 8 2010 .SHORT TERM...ONE DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A SECOND FEATURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTN IN SW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SO FAR ARE ONLY AROUND .70 ON IPW SENSORS HOWEVER BOTH NAM AND GFS INCREASE THESE VALUES TO AROUND AN INCH BY LATE AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. BEST INSTABILITY BY MID TO LATE AFTN WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS WITH CAPES RANGING FM 500-1000 J/KG. AT THIS POINT WILL INCREASE POPS SOME INTO CHC CATEGORY IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS FOR THIS AFTN AND ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING. IN THE MTNS WILL KEEP SCT POPS FM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH FAIRLY DECENT MID LVL FLOW STORMS WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY AND WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MDT RAIN IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. OVER THE NERN PLAINS WHERE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S ACROSS NERN CO. MEANWHILE WITH FAIRLY TIGHT SFC GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS EXPECT GUSTY SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING. FOR TONIGHT QUITE A BIT OF MID LVL DRYING WILL SPREAD FM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WSW. THUS PCPN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY END IN THE MTNS...FOOTHILLS BY EARLY EVENING AND ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT. .LONG TERM...ON THURSDAY...AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF PROGGED TO BE OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SRN ID AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS A 85+ KT JET MAX WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE...AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE TROF AXIS IS PROGGED MOVE ACRS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY BRUSH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME. NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE A 40KT CROSS-MOUNTAIN DOWNSLOPE WND COMPONENT SPREADING INTO THE FOOTHILLS FM AROUND 06Z-15Z FRIDAY MORNING AS A SHALLOW MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPS. ALTHO HIGH WIND CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF WIND TO FURTHER COMPOUND WILDFIRE CONDITIONS IN FOURMILE CANYON. GUSTS AT THAT TIME WILL RANGE FM 45-55 MPH FOOTHILLS AND ERN MTN SLOPES. NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH YET BUT IT MAY BE NECESSARY AT SOME POINT FOR STRONG WINDS AND CONTINUED LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WILL SEE IF THE NEXT RUN ADVERTISES A SIMILAR SCENARIO. THE NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE WEAK UPWARD QG ASCENT THURSDAY AFTN/EVNG. THERE WILL BE ENUF MSTR OVER THE NERN PLAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS AT THAT TIME. STRONGER DOWNWARD QG DESCENT (15-20 MB/HR) IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z FRIDAY AOA 700 MB. THE AMS WILL DRY OUT AND STABILIZE AT THAT TIME WITH MORE OF A ZONAL WLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS ALG THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE A BYPRODUCT OF THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. .AVIATION...A DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. THIS FEATURE COULD BRIEFLY ENHANCE TSTM ACTIVITY NE THE AIRPORT. WITH RATHER DECENT MID LVL FLOW ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF MDT RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT WL LEAVE VCTY IN THE TAF AND MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER 00Z. WINDS TODAY WILL BE SLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE SE BY 18Z AND THEN MORE SSW AFT 00Z. NAM SHOWS WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH FM 20Z THRU 00Z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && RPK/COOPER
NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion
| Find your Local National Weather Service forecast by "City, St" or Zip Code |
Search by city or zip code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request
|
